Demand in Recession in Western Europe: the Increased Need for Value

Executive Summary – Recession Learnings

COVID-19’s impact on the economy is unprecedented. GDP in the Eurozone is expected to contract 8.7% in 2020 and with a 6.1% rebound in 2021* but not for all countries, business and consumers.

During the previous recession (2009-2011), the Eurozone suffered a contraction of 4.5% in 2009** but impact was not consistent across the region as time taken to emerge from the crisis varied significantly from country to country.

The FMCG and retail industry were in what we call the “flight to value” which manifested in:

• Consumption migrating from branded products to private label
• Shoppers favouring value channels such as discounters
• Increased promotion

All the factors generated a price war and eroded margins.

While every recession is different, and this COVID-19 deeper recession is likely to have unique characteristics, there are lessons that can be learned from the past recession that can help us anticipate the future and new trends to watch to seize opportunities.

* Source: European Commission Economic Forecast Summer 2020
** Source: Eurostat

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